June 17, 2026. The new head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), Kevin Warsh, today officially announced a radical change in the communication policy of the American regulator. Warsh said that the Fed is ending the practice of publishing a "dot plot" — a quarterly forecast of interest rates by members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC).

This decision breaks with a long-standing tradition, dating back to Ben Bernanke in 2012, which has long served as the primary tool for managing market expectations.

 The end of the era of "predictability"
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, Kevin Warsh explained his move as a desire to return the Fed to "flexibility and decision-making based on current data rather than dogmatic models."

"Markets have become accustomed to viewing a dot plot as a commitment rather than a forecast," the Fed chief said. "When the real economy deviates from the trajectory outlined in the plot, it creates unnecessary volatility and undermines confidence in the institution. We will no longer attempt to predict the future two years in advance, as this would disappoint investors when life intervenes."

Warsh's position against the "dictates of the markets,"
Experts note that Warsh, who before his appointment often criticized the Fed leadership for excessive transparency bordering on "hostage to the markets," has long opposed the publication of forecasts. In his opinion, the Fed's desire to give a clear signal about future rates deprives the regulator of freedom of maneuver in crisis situations.

It is expected that the Fed's rhetoric will now become more "data-dependent." Instead of publishing forecasts, the meetings will discuss specific economic indicators, when the regulator will adjust policy.

 Wall Street's reaction
The markets' reaction to the statement was nervous. Stock indices demonstrated sharp fluctuations immediately after the news came out, as traders lost their main "compass" for assessing long-term prospects of borrowed funds.

 "This is a seismic shift for the financial world," comments the chief economist of Goldman Sachs. — Investors will have to get used to a world where the Fed doesn't provide guidance. This increases the level of uncertainty, but perhaps this was Warsh's intention - to force the market to pay closer attention to the real economy rather than the intentions of officials."

 What's next?
The abolition of the dot plot marks the final departure from the "era of cheap money" that began after the 2008 financial crisis. Analysts believe that this move is just the first step in a series of reforms that Warsh plans to implement.

Despite criticism from some lawmakers who fear destabilization of the markets, supporters of the new Fed chief welcome the decision, calling it a return to classic central banking, where the regulator's actions are evaluated "in fact" and not by its promises.

 In the coming sessions, increased volatility is expected, as the investment community will have to build new models for assessing monetary policy without the usual "guidance" from the Fed itself.