July 2, 2026. The European Union has set an ambitious goal of achieving tangible results in reducing its record trade deficit with China by October. However, the implementation of Brussels' plans is being complicated by the extreme heat, as the demand for climate control equipment, which is almost entirely imported from China, has reached an all-time high.

 The Imbalance of Numbers
The economic relationship between the EU and Beijing is facing challenging times. Last year, the EU's trade deficit with China increased by 15%, reaching an impressive €360 billion. The first quarter of this year only confirmed the negative trend: the figure expanded to €98 billion, setting a new high since 2022.

 At the meeting held on Monday, the parties issued a joint statement, emphasizing their desire for a "balanced relationship." Brussels is pushing for increased access for European goods to the Chinese market, demanding concrete steps from Beijing by the end of this fall.

 "Climate" dependence
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Europe has not been prepared for the rapid climate change. Historically conservative about installing air conditioners — both due to architectural regulations and environmental concerns — Europe has faced a situation where only 20% of households are equipped with climate technology.

 In the face of extreme heat, demand for cooling systems has skyrocketed, but the local industry has been unable to offer an alternative to Chinese products. Today, none of the top five air conditioning brands in the EU is owned by a European company. According to experts, Chinese giants Haier Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Midea Group will control about 32% of the European market by the end of 2025.

 "Half of the EU's total imports from China are currently made up of technological products. This is a cause for concern for European industries and could potentially become a systemic financial issue for the EU in the long run," said Denis Depoux, Managing Director of the consulting company Roland Berger.

Spot pressure instead of a "trade war"
The European Commission has long accused Beijing of using aggressive methods of competition, such as excessive government subsidies and dumping. In response, Brussels has begun to tighten its policies towards Chinese suppliers. These measures include the removal of tax incentives for low-cost foreign parcels and restrictions on the financing of solar projects that use Chinese components.

 However, analysts emphasize that the European Union has so far refrained from imposing large-scale tariffs, fearing an escalation of the trade war. The measures are expected to be “targeted” and will primarily affect those sectors that Brussels considers critical to its “strategic autonomy.”

 It remains to be seen whether Europe can reconcile its strict trade policies with the need to provide its citizens with essential goods in the face of global warming.